Thursday, 31 January 2008


With Giuliani and Edwards out of the race for their party’s Presidential nomination, the politics is beginning to become clear. McCain must be set to finally go all the way for the Republicans. As for the Democrats, well, there may be a problem.
I’ve always thought Edwards would stand no chance, with Clinton and Obama in a two horse race. This seems to have come true. But who will benefit most from Edwards? I suppose it depends who’s offered him the most.
But I’ll put my money on Clinton. Yet too close a race could give the impression the Democrats are indecisive, which could be a bad thing in terms of gaining a Democrat President next time.
I previously said the Republicans were in a mess, and stood little chance. But if McCain rises as a single favourite, he could produce a surprise unity. If this happens, the Republicans may not be finished yet.

© Anthony North, January 2008

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Twilight said...

Oh please, not another 4 years of Republican rule with the old warrior in charge!

I think natural balance will ensure a Democrat wins, barring calamities before November (e.g. another terrorist attack in the US).

I was depressed that Edwards didn't do better. I now hope to see him as Attorney General or in a powerful cabinet post. Obama is the more likely to offer him such favours I suppose, but if Clinton wants his delegates and voters badly enough -well - you never know.

Anonymous said...

If McCain is the nominee, he will have little if no support from the far right. McCain is the most liberal of the Republican candidates and has a good support among independents. In a general election he will have a hard time holding the middle and still have enough pull to get enough Republicans to the polls.

The Democratic side is shaping up to a split, again, between the Clinton camp and those opposed. It also makes the possibility of a contested convention very likely. No matter who is the nominee for the Democrats, the loser will have enormous control when it comes to the campaign. Will a ticket of Clinton-Obama or Obama-Clinton be in the future?

anthonynorth said...

Hi Twilight,
I'm certainly hoping for a Democrat President. From the UK perspective, it's definitely time for a change.
I suspected Edwards would fall because the Democrats were so obviously out to make a point.
Only thing is, they're split on the point - the first woman, or first black President.

Hi Brian,
For many years the Conservatives over here have been out in the cold. NuLabour managed to brand them as the 'nasty party'. Does that ring any bells over there?
The Conservative answer over here was for the Far Right to swallow their pride and elect nicey, nicey David Cameron to lead them.
I won't say McCain is nicey, nicey, but he is liberal - and you can bet the Republicans are keeping a very close eye on the Conservatives over here.
Sometimes gaining power is what counts.
I'm not sure whether Clinton or Obama would fit as Vice President. There seems too much of a conflict. But Edwards?
Who's promised what to get him out of the way?